We are living in a geoeconomically turbulent era. Strong winds are blowing from across the Atlantic, where the United States is reshaping the global playing field, creating uncertainty in the operating environment of the forest industry and the broader business sector. In 2024, the U.S. was the third most important export market for the Finnish forest industry, with key exports including cardboard, paper, and pulp. As a result, changes in U.S. policy are being closely monitored by our industry.

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President Trump took office on January 20, and immediately afterward, global markets started to move. The first announcements of import tariffs affecting international trade targeted Canada, Mexico, and China. Europe received its first hit in February when Trump announced global tariffs on steel and aluminum, automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, the U.S. administration invoked the so-called reciprocal tariff, expected to target the EU's value-added tax, which is perceived in the U.S. as an import tariff or an export subsidy. However, this interpretation is unfounded under WTO rules, but if enforced, it could quickly impact European companies’ exports.

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During the last week of February, the first references to tariffs on European wood raw materials and wood products surfaced. The week was further overshadowed by Trump's threat to impose a 25 % uniform import tariff on the EU. As with this statement, the greatest challenge in the U.S.'s new deal-centric trade policy is the uncertainty created by its unpredictability. We have already seen decisions change rapidly, timelines remain vague, and product categories left unspecified.

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The Forest Industry Actively Monitors the Evolving Business Environment

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Amid the constantly shifting landscape of international trade and trade policy, the Finnish Forest Industries Federation strives to form the best possible understanding of how U.S. actions impact our sector. In addition to the direct effects on our industry’s exports, we must also monitor potential disruptions in global supply chains and, for instance, whether tariffs could lead to an increase in Canadian products entering the European market.

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We build our situational awareness by actively engaging with experts from different administrative sectors and stakeholders in Europe and Finland. Together with our member companies, we participate in the European Paper Industry Association’s (Cepi) U.S. Trade Network, which plays a key role in forming the industry's position on potential EU countermeasures and communicating this stance to the European Commission. So far, the EU has deemed the U.S.'s proposed actions regrettable and has signaled the possibility of implementing strict and proportionate countermeasures if necessary.

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Domestically, the Finnish Forest Industries Federation is part of the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs’ advisory group, which gathers and disseminates information to companies on the progression and effects of tariffs. In addition to these efforts, we are prepared to respond swiftly to any actions targeting our industry.

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At present, we are closely monitoring the impact of tariffs imposed by Canada and Mexico, particularly Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, on international trade flows, while keeping a watchful eye on potential tariff plans affecting the EU and the forest industry. The Finnish Forest Industries Federation supports and promotes free international trade, which is now being restricted through the measures currently under discussion.